Why the Latest NOAA Outlook Is Good News for Taos
17 July 2026
The latest NOAA outlook has El Niño strengthening fast, and the Southwest is coming out ahead.
In a new July analysis, SnowBrains calls New Mexico and Arizona the most improved region on the map, pointing to above-normal precipitation paired with cooler, near-normal temperatures at elevation. That combination is about the best setup a mountain can ask for, and Taos Ski Valley gets named specifically as well-positioned if the pattern holds.
NOAA now puts the odds of a very strong El Niño at 81% for early winter, up from 60% just a month ago. Seasonal outlooks are about odds rather than guarantees, but the signal keeps pointing our way.